Local 7 Day & Monthly Forecast
A fairly cloudy wet month
The first four
days of July will have Britain
sandwiched between relatively high
pressure over the near-Continent and
low pressure to the west. The 1st
will be a dry sunny day over most of
England and Wales, but a dull wet
one in Scotland and Ireland, with
highs of 25-27C in the southeast.
Rain will spread east overnight
1st/2nd but any associated
thunderstorms will be slight and
well scattered. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th
will see the low pressure slowly
fill to the north-west, bringing
sunshine and showers to the country,
and highs mostly between 19 and 22C.
The showers will be slow-moving with
scattered thunderstorms in most
regions.
A deep low pressure system will drift eastwards across southern areas on the 5th, 6th and 7th bringing a spell of dull, rather cold, wet weather with highs suppressed at 15 to 18C. Between the 8th and 10th I expect a northerly regime to temporarily set in, with cool cloudy drizzly weather over much of central and eastern Britain, but some sunshine for the western side of Britain. Atlantic westerlies will set in towards midmonth bringing cool, cloudy wet weather everywhere though there will be some brighter, showery weather in between the rain belts.
High pressure will be most prominent during the third week, initially situated to the north-west of Britain giving cool cloudy northerlies for the east and sunshine for the west, but it will extend its influence eastwards as the week progresses. It will become quite hot for a time over southern Britain with highs into the high 20s. However, I expect a breakdown from the south-west around 20-23 July, with some thunderstorms likely in western and southern areas. The last week of July is likely to be unsettled but fairly warm with frequent south-easterly winds, as the trend for northern blocking continues. It will be quite sunny in north-west Scotland at times, but for most other regions, dull and muggy.
Thus, in short, I am expecting a rather cloudy damp sort of July, but I have a feeling that August will promise warmer, sunnier weather.
I expect near or above average rainfall across most of the country, with the exception of northern Scotland where there will be a deficit of around 20%. Averaged nationally the excess will be around 20%, so nothing like as wet as last year.
Sunshine totals will fall short of the long-term average in most regions, by around 20% in eastern England and south-east Scotland, and around 10% in most other regions. The exception will be north-west Scotland, where I expect an excess of 10-20%. Some other western parts may also reach the long-term average.
Forecast issued by Ian Simpson (aka TWS) on 30th June 2008.
A deep low pressure system will drift eastwards across southern areas on the 5th, 6th and 7th bringing a spell of dull, rather cold, wet weather with highs suppressed at 15 to 18C. Between the 8th and 10th I expect a northerly regime to temporarily set in, with cool cloudy drizzly weather over much of central and eastern Britain, but some sunshine for the western side of Britain. Atlantic westerlies will set in towards midmonth bringing cool, cloudy wet weather everywhere though there will be some brighter, showery weather in between the rain belts.
High pressure will be most prominent during the third week, initially situated to the north-west of Britain giving cool cloudy northerlies for the east and sunshine for the west, but it will extend its influence eastwards as the week progresses. It will become quite hot for a time over southern Britain with highs into the high 20s. However, I expect a breakdown from the south-west around 20-23 July, with some thunderstorms likely in western and southern areas. The last week of July is likely to be unsettled but fairly warm with frequent south-easterly winds, as the trend for northern blocking continues. It will be quite sunny in north-west Scotland at times, but for most other regions, dull and muggy.
Thus, in short, I am expecting a rather cloudy damp sort of July, but I have a feeling that August will promise warmer, sunnier weather.
Overview
I am going for
a July CET of 16.1C. Temperatures
will be slightly below the long-term
normal across East Anglia but
slightly above over northern
Scotland. I expect near or above average rainfall across most of the country, with the exception of northern Scotland where there will be a deficit of around 20%. Averaged nationally the excess will be around 20%, so nothing like as wet as last year.
Sunshine totals will fall short of the long-term average in most regions, by around 20% in eastern England and south-east Scotland, and around 10% in most other regions. The exception will be north-west Scotland, where I expect an excess of 10-20%. Some other western parts may also reach the long-term average.
Forecast issued by Ian Simpson (aka TWS) on 30th June 2008.