Long Range Forecast

 

Autumn into Winter 2011 

November: Variable, chilly at times The last month of autumn will be characterized by mild conditions vying for supremacy with chillier weather. The UK and Eire will experience some breezy and wet passages, but also some drier weather. Northern and some western regions of both Britain and Ireland are likely to experience most of the inclement conditions. Embedded within the more unsettled spells there is a hint of some sleet or wet snow episodes across parts of northern and perhaps upland western Britain – the greatest likelihood for this scenario is towards the end of the month. The South and East generally will be the sunniest. Any clear passages by day across the British Isles will lead to the formation of overnight frost and local fog. PWS expects November for most regions to approach the long-term average for rainfall. It will begin to feel chilly at times, especially in late month, though temperatures overall will be not be far off the norm. Conclusively there is scant evidence for the sustained cold and snow that, curiously, was reported by some UK newspapers during September.     Winter 2011/12     Winter 2011-12: Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South   December – often cold, chance of snow in places The start of winter is expected to present some contrasts for much of the British Isles. There are signals for some wet and unsettled weather over many western and a number of areas to the north. There is also strong evidence during the month for some chilly but mainly settled weather, with possibly severe overnight frost, along with persistent fog in low-lying localities. It is furthermore likely that a definite wintry episode will become established, with the potential for snow especially over areas of the North and East. Within this general circulation, some parts of northern and north-eastern Britain retain the best chance of experiencing a White Christmas. Temperatures will overall be on or slightly below average for the North, on or slightly above average for the South.  Precipitation is likely to approach the long-term December norm, though some southern areas in particular may reflect notably drier than average values. January – some cold, dry South developing The first month of 2012 looks like being characterised by a sometimes mild North, and developing dry, at times colder conditions in the South. As a result many northern regions will often experience breezy, cloudier and wet weather but also some chillier, showery interludes - some of which will be wintry in nature. The prospect of prolonged wintry activity looks however unlikely, although occasional colder cells embedded within the overall flow will provide the North, especially upland districts, with temporary snow cover. Strong winds may also be a feature for these regions. Drier conditions, with some sunshine but overnight occasionally severe frost will be more frequent in the South. Some southern and eastern areas will witness cloud or fog formation, at times persistent, giving an overall cold feel. January’s temperatures will approach the norm or exceed it in some northern and western parts. Southern and eastern areas may be drier than the average. February – generally milder There are indications that February over the British Isles may initially offer some of the most unsettled weather of the entire season. Contained within this fairly disturbed pattern there are hints for occasional episodes of colder, polar maritime air moving across northern parts of Britain and Ireland in particular; this will bring sleet and snow, most especially to upland areas. There is however no strong signal for any widespread period of sustained cold.  Spells of rain coupled with strong to gale force winds will also feature during February.  The month will also feature some drier and pleasantly sunny passages, these most likely as the month progresses and across southern regions and the South-West in particular. Temperatures overall for the month are likely to be on or above the norm, perhaps notably so for parts of the South; rainfall also looks set to reflect on or above average values.